Everybody’s super hyped about this weekend’s excellent card featuring Volk vs Lopes, Paddy vs. Chandler and several other exciting fights. But for the next big card, where welterweight champ Belal Muhammad takes on Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 in Montreal, I’m afraid we’re all fooling ourselves a little. Does anyone out there seriously think that JDM and his glaring takedown defense issues has any chance against the division’s most relentless “Bully” on the ground?
The Elephant In The Room
JDM’s victory over Gilbert Burns at UFC 299 last March was impressive on paper, but if you actually watched the fight, far less so. Burns easily won the first two rounds with repeated takedowns, controlling JDM and winning the first two rounds on two judges’ scorecards (third judge had it 1-1) before a lovely knee by JDM ended things.
Now, a win is a win, no doubt, and yes, saying “Gilbert Burns was winning until he got knocked out!” is a little like asking “Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” But we’re on to another fight now, and JDM doesn’t get the assumption that he’ll pull another fight-ending KO strike after being Belal’s ragdoll play date. No one does that to Belal, and JDM ain’t gonna be the first.
Belal is a human blanket against strikers. Against Vicente Luque, he had 7:29 of control time; against Wonderboy, it was almost 12 minutes. Against Leon Edwards, it was more than 12 minutes. What exactly do we think is going to be different against JDM, who nearly lost a decision against last-minute LFA callup Bassil Hafez because he couldn’t stop his takedowns. C’mon, man.
“I Reckon I Can Finish Him”
That’s what JDM says about Belal, and sure, maybe if he pulls a Jorge Masvidal and sucker punches him coming around a corner. Otherwise, good f**king luck, mate: Belal’s been finished once, nine years ago by Vicente Luque, and he’s already gotten his revenge for that. Again, superior strikers like Wonderboy and Leon got ragdolled when they tried. Nothing will be different for JDM.
And don’t be fooled by Belal’s takedown numbers, which are roughly two per fight. But you know what? When a guy can’t get back on his feet no matter what he does, then you only need one per round. Belal’s take-em-down-and-keep-em down vs Jack’s inability to stop takedowns from even minor-league fighters is a prescription for yet another Belal ass-whuppin’.
Belal in the second
I like JDM. I mean, honestly, who doesn’t love Australians in general? Every single one of ’em seems as down to earth as can be, like they’d happily have a beer with you or punch a kangaroo or f**k a crocodile or whatever those people do for fun. But he’s being fed to the lions here, I’m afraid. Dana’s plan was clear: preserve the Belal vs Shavkat matchup while not logjamming the division while Shavkat recovers from his injuries. Pretend JDM’s deserving of a title shot (he’s not), feed a mentally destroyed Leon to Sean Brady (check), and then by the time Belal’s recovered from his light work against JDM, Shavkat will be close to ready.
Prediction: Belal by ground and pound, Rd 2.
